For whom the bell tolls

Though all is quiet on the western front, statements following the Madrid bombing that a terrorist attack on London is inevitable continue to ring in my ears... Even though we've always known London was at risk, this new announcement seems to have changed things at least in my head. I admit that I have wondered whether we should consider leaving London ― while there are lots of good things about being here, there are other places we could live and work. But for now at least, we'll stay put. And here's why...

Imagine if you will that rather than just believing a terrorist attack on London was “inevitable", we could know with certainty one would occur in the next twelve months. How much risk would we be at? Let us suppose the attack was of the magnitude of both the Madrid and Bali bombings, with around 200 people being killed (and of course, scores more injured). Without question a despicable and evil act.

At the time of the 2001 census, the population of the inner and outer boroughs of London was 7,172,000. If we presume that all residents have an equal probability of being in the wrong place at the wrong time, Bronwyn and I would each have a 1 in 35,860 chance of being killed in the terrorist attack this coming year (presuming one were to happen). I have to admit, this doesn't sound too good. If the odds were this low on Lotto, I'd be buying tickets.

However, in London we don't own a car. I walk to work most days, and catch buses. Bronwyn uses a combination of the buses and a short distance on the District Line tube. Barring terrorist attacks, these are safe forms of transport. In New Zealand we owned a car. (Do you see where this is going?) As I write this the population of New Zealand is estimated at 4,054,555. (It has gone up by four people while I typed the above paragraphs.) The NZ road toll (that is, the number of people who have died on New Zealand roads) in the last twelve months till today is 476. That means that, again assuming equal risk for all, Bronwyn and I would have each had a 1 in 8,518 chance of being killed in a car accident this year, had we stayed in New Zealand. That is 4.2 times more likely than being killed in the terrorist attack.

We could refine these analyses further... We have not included the over five million people who live in the suburban area surrounding London in our analysis, and the London population we have used will have increased since 2001. Furthermore, in New Zealand, Bronwyn and I covered more kilometres and did more than the average amount of open-road long-distance driving, where presumably we were at greater risk. Now, it is possible a terrorist attack might be much larger than Madrid ― perhaps more a New York-magnitude 5,000 deaths. However, such an attack would almost certainly have to target large highrise buildings in the central city, and we don't live or work in that area. Finally, let us permit ourselves to recall that the road toll is almost inevitable, whereas we are merely assuming here there will be a terrorist attack on London ― and let us pray there will not be.

So, have we packed our bags? No. Do we hope to live long in the land the Lord has promised us? Of course. Can we predict the future? Again, no. But we do not live in fear, either for this life or the one that is to come.